WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE NEXT?

BABATUNDE ALONGE

IFE, ITELORUN, IFARADA, IRETI #NIGERIA, #ENERGY ECONOMICS, #POLITICAL ECONOMICS, #ARSENAL

2 articles

May 12, 2020

What a time to be alive. Unemployment could rise to 33.5% while inflation is at 12.3% and still rising, showing a positive correlation and further contradicting A. W. Philips theory of an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. Well, this is not the first time this is happening. As it was experienced in the 70s when America slipped into stagflation having recorded stagnant growth for 6 consecutive quarters. Economies whose trade ties were strongly linked with the U.S felt the brunt recording great domestic economic and financial downturns. From this some learnt, while others didn’t.

We have a similar situation at hand due to a menace that originated from a remote village. IMF has predicted recession for weak economies, having companies’ going concern a cause for concern, bottom lines getting threatened, government running out of ideas and into debt, theories failing and hypotheses rendered null and void. This means one thing, economies and their constituents will get to near ground zero, thus many persons will be loosing their jobs as most organizations will be downscaling (lay off some staff) to remain relevant, stay afloat and competitive and of course, adopting innovative ways of delivering their deliverables. Cold or hot tears, depending on your temperature, will run down and uncertainty will further get stressed. Things won’t be as they were, anymore.

But, who are those to feel this brunt of this unfavorable economic conditions? The unprepared!. Just as the most vulnerable countries are the ones whose reserves are next to nothing and running a near monotonic economy, same for individuals who couldn’t think and prepare for what next after their respective previous ‘next’. Those who’re monotonic in nature. At some point getting a job by a job seeker was his next, but not thinking about what’s next after getting such job is catastrophic. Some individuals were job seekers who only wanted to get a job for the sake of staying afloat.

Being broke requires that you get a job, fine, but you’re not particular if the job meets your potentials, natural traits and abilities thereby complementing your personality and affording you the zest to want to distinguish yourself by giving your all and as a result, catapulting you into your preferred place. You just wanted to get a job (even if it doesn’t match your person) so as to get by without thinking of the consequences. The consequences is that, if the job is not your fit, you’ll drag along without developing and that makes you a victim of downscaling in period as this. Because the fact is that the firm won’t lay off all its staff, those to be laid off are the very ones who appear dispensable.

Studies have shown that things are not always as they appear. Often when we solve one problem, we end up unintentionally creating another one that’s even worse - unintended consequences. So that when you solve the problem of getting a job, you’re then face with how to keep the job. Keeping the job becomes a mess if its doesn’t suit your person. People get into this mess because they’ve refused to engage in the ‘Second Order Thinking’.

Howard Mark explains that ‘First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the immediate future, as in “Getting a job is enough to get by’’. Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted’. Hence, the best way to examine the long-term consequences of your decisions is to use second-order thinking. Such as asking questions like ‘what is next after getting this job’? Can I thrive on this job? Can this job catapult or avail me better opportunities? Would this job allow me enough time to pursue my desired academic goals? These thoughts will avail you the opportunity to evaluate your decision not on the basis of immediate gratification or what meets the eye, but on a more in-depth, well analyzed and informed basis.

Second order thinking could mean that you’re going to take longer time in making your decision because every factor to be consider must be considered. You must consider the match and see if it’s a round peg in a round hole in order to achieve extraordinary results. Suppose you know that Extraordinary performance comes from seeing things that other people can’t see and painstakingly taking your time to get the best fit. If you do this you’re more likely to get a job that really suit you well and thrive rather than strive on it.

The best way to examine the long-term consequences of your decisions is to use second-order thinking. Such as asking questions like ‘what is next after getting this job’? Can I thrive on this job? Can this job catapult or avail me better opportunities? Would this job allow me enough time to pursue my desired academic goals? 

Second order thinking also include thinking in terms of interactions and time, understanding that although our intentions are right, our interventions on the long run often cause harm either intentionally or otherwise. Ray Dallio opined that Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Second order thinkers ask themselves the question ‘What Next’? This means thinking about the consequences of accepting a job offer that doesn’t suit you and using that to inform your decision.

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BABATUNDE ALONGE

IFE, ITELORUN, IFARADA, IRETI #NIGERIA, #ENERGY ECONOMICS, #POLITICAL ECONOMICS, #ARSENAL

2 articles

May 12, 2020


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